I’m on many conference calls throughout the week, but I never miss BX, WMT, and a few others for general macro commentary – these firms have the best “dashboards” in real-time – far superior to anything the so-called “experts” at the fed have. People putting capital to work will have superior knowledge vs. “academics” now and forever:
BX conf call recap:
Macro
- Repeated shocks → markets normalize; economy still resilient
- Current overhang: geopolitics (Iran), volatility elevated
AI / Capex Cycle
- Massive spend in data centers + energy + grid
- Clear shift toward hard assets winners; software = dispersion
Rates / Credit
- Bias: rates lower post-stabilization
- Defaults rising from low base
- Credit holding up better than headlines
Flows / Liquidity
- Institutional = stable
- Retail/wealth = fragile, sentiment-driven
- Private liquidity constraints accepted for return premium
Positioning Shift
- Into: infrastructure, energy, asset-based finance
- Away from: software / white-collar exposure
Bottom Line
- AI-driven real asset cycle + macro volatility
- Split tape: strong fundamentals vs shaky sentiment
