This research isolates speculative positioning itself—not signals, execution, or optimization—to test whether statistical extremes exhibit intrinsic convexity.
Using a deliberately constrained, fully blind framework, the analysis asks a narrow question: Do positioning extremes alone resolve asymmetrically over time, independent of discretionary judgment or technical overlays.
The work is intended as factor validation and regime context, not a trading system. Its purpose is to determine whether positioning functions as a standalone macro factor, capable of producing favorable payoff asymmetry prior to execution skill.
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