June 23, 2026

Warsh / Winfree > Fed path – Explaining recent moves in 2Y Yield and Inflation Swaps

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The Fed/Warsh topic was naturally a discussion point from my recent trip in Toronto/Montreal (met with various Traders/PM’s/Hedge-Funds/Pension Funds/Fam Offices/Advisors/CEO’s/CFO’s). Something I brought up was Warsh’s hiring of Paul Winfree earlier this month, which I haven’t heard discussed anywhere.

Winfree was the former deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council during Trump 1.0 and authored the “Mandate for Leadership” portion of “Project 2025.” Keep in mind Warsh just hired Winfree. 

Here are Winfree’s key recommendations from the chapter:

  • Eliminate the Fed’s dual mandate and focus primarily on price stability/inflation control.
  • Reduce or end the Fed’s role as lender of last resort.
  • Shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and limit emergency interventions.
  • Subject monetary policy to more rules-based constraints.
  • Explore more fundamental alternatives, including free banking, commodity-backed money, or even replacing the Fed entirely.

The chapter’s core argument is that discretionary central banking has become too powerful, too political, and too involved in allocating credit and supporting government deficits. Winfree argues for a much narrower central bank role and a more market-driven monetary system.

Market-wise, the most consequential practical proposal would be ending the dual mandate (employment + inflation) and moving toward a single inflation-focused mandate. The more radical ideas—free banking, gold-standard-type systems, or abolishing the Fed—were discussed as alternatives but are generally viewed as far less likely to be implemented. 

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Disclaimer: This publication is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice, does not take into account individual circumstances, and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of any employer or affiliated institution.
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